MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...DE...NJ...SE PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 011737Z - 011900Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM SRN
   VA NNEWD INTO SE PA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 3500 TO
   4500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ON THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN PA...WRN MD AND ERN WV. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD INTO THE MCD AREA WHERE
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
   0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM LIKELY ALREADY EXIST WHICH
   ALONG WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE. THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM
   WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   37167738 37167788 37327837 37647856 37867862 38297859
               38757843 39297797 39697745 39897665 39807570 39557537
               39017551 38617591 37407682 37167738