MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/WRN VT/WRN MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 010958Z - 011200Z
   
   BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
   MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WIND
   GUST...BEFORE AN EXPECTED WEAKENING AS THEY CROSS THE HUDSON AND
   CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
   
   WARM ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED
   DEVELOPMENT OF AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF STORMS OVER ERN NY.  THE STORMS
   ARE UTILIZING AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY -- GREATEST TO THE W
   ACROSS ERN NY AND THEN DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND.
   
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA -- AND THUS
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT LACKING.  HAVING SAID THAT...THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STORMS -- LOCALLY VIGOROUS ENOUGH
   TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS
   CONTINUE EWD INTO A REGION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY...STORMS -- AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL --
   SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   LAT...LON   44187428 44847354 44867258 44137245 42627290 42037377
               41707569 42057620 42887527 44187428