MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX...WRN OK...ERN PANHANDLES OF TX AND
   OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 310439Z - 310615Z
   
   AT 04Z...DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN LEA COUNTY NM NNEWD THROUGH
   LUBBOCK/ROBERTS COUNTY TX TO BEAVER COUNTY OK...WHERE IT INTERSECTED
   WEAK/PAC COLD FRONT THAT IN TURN EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS CVS/ROW AREAS.
    LEADING EDGE OF MUCH MORE INTENSE COLD FRONTAL SURGE WAS EVIDENT
   OVER SERN KS AND SWRN CO...AND WILL OVERTAKE PAC FRONT AND DRYLINE
   FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TWO INITIALLY DISTINCT
   AREAS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SOME
   EVENTUAL OVERLAP/MERGER POSSIBLE...
   
   1. QUASI-LINEAR MCS RESPONSIBLE FOR SERIAL-DERECHO EVENT FROM
   KS-MN...WHICH MAY BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MOVE
   EWD OVER PORTIONS NWRN OK.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037 FOR
   DETAILS FROM KS NWD.  AS FRONTAL SURGE OVERTAKES DRYLINE...STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL IMPINGE UPON MOIST SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
   DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F NEAR KS BORDER AND MID-UPPER 50S NEAR
   CAPROCK OF NW TX.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
   FRONTAL LIFT VERSUS MLCINH THAT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH CONTINUES SFC
   DIABATIC COOLING.
   
   2. WIDELY SCATTERED AND APPARENTLY HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE SW CDS TO S LBB.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STG CINH FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS...150-300
   J/KG...ALTHOUGH BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT WITHIN
   AND ATOP CAPPING LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45 KT SLY LLJ.  EVEN
   DISCOUNTING NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
   EVIDENT TO SUPPORT TSTM ORGANIZATION...E.G. 45-55 KT.  STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT MUCAPE ESTIMATES 2500-3500 J/KG AS
   WELL.  AS SUCH...ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
   STG-SVR GUSTS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32770183 35490057 36890010 36789805 34449888 32770183