MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391...
   
   VALID 282137Z - 282230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391
   CONTINUES.
   
   OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WW AREA.
   
   A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER UPSTATE NY AND
   NWRN NEW ENGLAND AS OF 2130Z HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING
   FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WW AREA. AS THIS WAVE QUICKLY
   MOVES THROUGH...IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IN COMBINATION WITH
   DIURNAL COOLING MAY ACT TO WEAKEN ONGOING CONVECTION. IN THE MEAN
   TIME...WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM
   PER RUC ANALYSIS/ JUXTAPOSED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
   SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...
   
   LAT...LON   44987391 45027157 44427170 43207249 43357327 43907422
               44667402 44987391