MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 281715Z - 281845Z
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ACROSS
   NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AN INTENSE STORM IS NOTED OVER MONROE CO MISSOURI AS OF 17Z...WITH
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING OVER NRN MO. MEANWHILE...AN
   EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL
   IL. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
   ROOTED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...WITH MU CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
   AVAILABLE TO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL
   SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...THOUGH
   RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE HAIL THREAT. IF COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE MORE THAN
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..DEAN.. 05/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   38909227 39219414 40109421 40599253 40639104 40568985
               40498895 40288823 39828768 39298759 38948772 38808899
               38839139 38909227