MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...ERN PA...SE NY...WRN MA...SRN VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 271624Z - 271800Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN PA AND SE NY THIS AFTERNOON.
   WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE
   APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS
   INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WRN EDGE OF A MOIST AXIS LOCATED
   FROM ECNTRL VA NNEWD ACROSS MD INTO ERN PA ND SE NY WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE IN NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW
   ENGLAND AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NWWD
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIATION OF NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ON THE
   ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT NEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 35
   TO 40 KT WHICH WILL AID THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ANY LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
   IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY QUITE STEEP ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE
   INTENSE CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   41507421 42037332 42477279 42997309 43187425 42827520
               41957639 40937756 39557845 38327869 37997852 37687820
               37777748 38367708 38997674 39477637 40507553 41507421