MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 261909Z - 262045Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN OH TO NRN MIDDLE TN
   MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 40 PERCENT.
   
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY/LIGHTNING TRENDS HAS BEEN NOTED
   DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS THAT STRETCHED
   ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM GREENE COUNTY OH TO MACON COUNTY TN AS OF
   19Z. DOWNSTREAM HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED BY LARGELY BROKEN CLOUD
   COVERAGE...RESULTING IN ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
   AOB 1000 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/IND...A NARROW-BANDED
   QLCS ALONG THE FRONT MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE E/NEWD. HOWEVER...THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   S/SWLYS...WHICH ARE ALSO NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
   THIS COMBINED WITH THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   36128487 36238610 36448605 37598532 39958419 40258369
               40408302 40318243 40148212 39908215 38698257 36518425
               36128487