MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL
   INTO NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 250548Z - 250645Z
   
   ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A LARGE
   PART OF EASTERN MO/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL AND
   PERHAPS NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. DAMAGING WINDS
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS.
   
   AN INTENSE/SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
   LINE...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED/IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
   SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS CENTRAL MO/NORTHWEST AR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. A 56 KT WIND
   GUST WAS RECENTLY NOTED AT FORT SMITH AR...WITH 53 KT MEASURED AT
   CHANUTE KS IN ADDITION A NUMBER OF MEASURED 40+ KT GUSTS.
   
   AMID AMPLE DVPA WITH VERY STRONG AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
   LAYER WIND FIELD /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1 KM/...CONTINUED STORM
   CONSOLIDATION/UPSCALE GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED/WELL-SUSTAINED QLCS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF A
   SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN MO ESE INTO CENTRAL IL...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   REMAINS VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AMID AROUND 70F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN...IN
   ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR
   QLCS-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE
   INCREASINGLY HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SRH.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   39739335 40709146 40238979 39228915 36658889 35059203
               37079177 38479253 39739335