MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA/VA/NC...WRN/CNTRL MD...ERN WV PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338...
   
   VALID 231833Z - 232000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338
   CONTINUES.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FROM PA
   TO NC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW ISSUANCE TO THE S OF WW 338 WILL
   BE LIKELY BY 20Z.
   
   ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAD WEAKENED ACROSS CNTRL PA...A
   RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WRN PA INTO
   ERN WV IN A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN REMNANT MCV
   CENTERED OVER NWRN PA. RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN ADAMANT IN THIS
   ACTIVITY INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS
   EWD INTO WW 338. CONTINUED HEATING DOWNSTREAM INTO AND THROUGH THE
   80S WILL RESULT IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BASED ON A
   MODIFIED 16Z IAD RAOB. WITH 50 KT W/SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL SAMPLED IN
   FCX/LWX VWP DATA...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
   
   WITH GREATER BUOYANCY AND INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU NOTED IN VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INTO NWRN NC AHEAD OF A SMALL MCV IN SWRN VA...A
   DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST TO THE S OF WW 338.
   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETE
   MODE COULD FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN PORTIONS OF SRN
   VA/NRN NC.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   40677871 41257845 41517807 41427710 41087671 39017687
               37627723 36477769 35957838 35667924 35818040 36058050
               36648023 40677871