MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR / NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...
   
   VALID 231710Z - 231815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339
   CONTINUES.
   
   MCS ONGOING OVER N-CNTRL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP E OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   339 WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM
   WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
   
   AS OF 1655Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER DENTON...TARRANT...DALLAS...COLLIN...
   ROCKWALL...KAUFMAN AND HUNT COUNTIES MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD.  WHILE
   AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS HAS NOW WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST
   THAT ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG.  THESE DATA
   INDICATE THAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 90
   F...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE.
   
   IN THE NEAR TERM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. 
   HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND THE STORMS BECOME ROOTED
   IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   32989875 33359804 33689775 33799705 33769556 33579477
               33499375 32839296 31869335 31549437 31789579 31359708
               31429771 31819843 32249865 32989875