MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0914 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...WRN AND CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231414Z - 231545Z
   
   A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SE OK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN AND
   CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A
   WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
   
   SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN SE OK ALONG THE AXIS OF A 45 TO
   60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
   AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SE OK EXTENDING ENEWD INTO CNTRL
   AR WHERE MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000
   TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION SUGGESTING THE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED. THE STORMS MAY
   OBTAIN MORE OF A SFC-BASED NATURE LATER THIS MORNING...INTENSIFYING
   AND MOVING INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AR. THE
   CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE
   THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE STORMS MAY BECOME MORE CLOSELY
   SFC-BASED. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED
   WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 12Z LITTLE ROCK
   SOUNDING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS
   THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   33949216 33869293 33749398 33739485 33929534 34309551
               34689535 35149481 35589425 35939353 35989251 35739167
               35289130 34449150 33949216