MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN OK...NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326...
   
   VALID 222334Z - 230030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 326 CONTINUES.
   
   AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES AHEAD OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS...SOME SUPERCELLS...OVER NRN TX. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE VALUES FROM
   3000-4000 J/KG...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR VALUES FROM 40-50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS
   POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL. THOUGH AREA VWP/S AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TORNADO THREAT
   STILL EXISTS...PARTICULARLY FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHT MOVERS. AS
   EVENING APPROACHES...LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT STORMS OVER N TX MAY
   EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A QLCS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
   CLOSE SPACING OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS EXPECTED
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. OTHERWISE IN THE SHORT
   TERM...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED S OF WW 326 AS RIGHT
   MOVING STORM EXITS BROWN COUNTY TX AND MOVES ACROSS COMANCHE COUNTY
   AND LOCATIONS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
   
   FARTHER N OVER PORTIONS OF SRN OK...LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
   OFF OF THE WWD RETREATING DRYLINE...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF SVR
   STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE LEFT MOVER AND
   N TX ACTIVITY.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   35209718 35229469 32259713 32219953 35209718