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Mesoscale Discussion 863 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LWR MI...NRN IND...ECNTRL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 327...
VALID 222116Z - 222315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 327 CONTINUES.
LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO
CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER
MI...NORTHERN/WESTERN IND...AND EAST CENTRAL IL WITH A CONTINUED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
SEVERAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MCD
AREA DURING THE EVENING. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP. THE 18Z ILX RAOB INDICATED VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY BE ORGANIZING UPSCALE
INTO A LINEAR MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES THIS EVENING.
..HART.. 05/22/2011
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39868893 40708858 41968741 42948634 43088450 42448427
41038487 40328562 39648772 39868893
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