MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...S-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326...
   
   VALID 222047Z - 222145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 326 CONTINUES.
   
   INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS JACK COUNTY TX
   WITH NUMEROUS CB/TCU DEEPENING GENERALLY S OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH
   W-CNTRL TX. FARTHER N IN S-CNTRL OK...CU FIELD IS NOT QUITE AS
   DEVELOPED. HOWEVER...SURFACE THERMAL AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IS OVERLAPPING THE DRYLINE
   HERE...WITH SUBTLE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE MOIST SECTOR
   ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS PROBABLE BETWEEN 22-23Z.
   
   AIR MASS WITHIN MUCH OF WW 326 REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
   OF 4500 TO 6000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED 18Z FWD
   RAOB. MEANWHILE...VAD WIND PROFILE AT FWS CONTINUES TO SAMPLE AROUND
   25 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH HAS NOW BACKED FROM THE SW TO THE S/SW AT
   1 KM AGL. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
   SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALREADY AROUND 40
   KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32329932 33029892 34409726 35549646 35609576 35269555
               34559606 33239718 32439810 32329932