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Mesoscale Discussion 857 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221915Z - 222015Z
DISCRETE CELLS FORMING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS BISECTING
LOWER MI SHOULD YIELD A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 20Z IS 60
PERCENT.
DISCRETE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG A N/S AXIS OF
CONFLUENCE EVIDENT IN SURFACE/SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH CNTRL LOWER
MI. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED CONFINED
ACROSS THE FAR N-CNTRL PORTION OF LOWER MI...GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE THUMB INTO SERN LOWER MI. MODIFIED 18Z DTX RAOB
WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER COULD TEMPER A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE CONFLUENCE AXIS IN S-CNTRL
LOWER MI RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
NEAR 2000 J/KG. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT FAVORING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41538504 44108452 45178408 45398383 45278344 44018258
43008249 41848306 41448338 41338398 41538504
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