MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 211933Z - 212100Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER N CNTRL
   KS...AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS KS/SRN NEB WITH AN
   EXPANDING CU FIELD. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONTINUED
   HEATING...THE CAP IS NEARLY GONE. DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING OVER
   NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS AND HIGH BASED CU AND
   SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL DOWNSTREAM
   WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.
   
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
   WITH 30-40 KT MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
   MOVE QUICKLY AND FORWARD PROPAGATE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ANY
   TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM W TO E AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
   VEER...HOWEVER...LONGER DURATION OF BACKED WINDS SFC TO 850 WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY...AND DEPENDING ON STORM MODE...A FEW
   CELLS MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION AND/OR PRODUCE A TORNADO.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   38949597 38909866 39019912 39479939 40109876 40519730
               40559454 40249422 39739408 39159417 39049464 38949597