MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS...S-CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314...
   
   VALID 202301Z - 210000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314
   CONTINUES.
   
   AT 2245Z...LINE SEGMENTS AND STORM CLUSTERS WERE LOCATED MAINLY OVER
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS AND S-CNTRL NEB...MOVING NNE AT AROUND 30 KT.
   THE SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO
   COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING/EWD SHIFTING LLJ.
   HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 500-1000 J/KG CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER WW 314...AND 50 KT
   S-SWLY MIDLEVEL JET IS AIDING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT...AS
   WELL AS APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLAINS...A MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
   MORE HOSTILE FOR SVR STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TOWARD
   EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY END THE SVR THREAT BY WATCH EXPIRATION.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/20/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   41239941 41229692 36189749 36199986 41239941