MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 191730Z - 191800Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF NWRN TX
   THROUGH WRN OK.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
   WEST CENTRAL KS WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ALONG AND INVOF THE
   WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER AND THEN THROUGH CDS TO WEST CENTRAL TX. 
   ONGOING STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE
   COMBINED WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM KING TO
   CHILDRESS COUNTIES TX ARE SUPPORTING DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT.  
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE NWD
   INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. 
   THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   35-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN EXPECTED BACKING OF
   MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NNE WITH
   TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY AS CELLS MOVE INTO CORRIDOR OF GREATER LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER VALUES OF EFFECTIVE SRH LOCATED ALONG AND
   E OF THE DRY LINE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   33420043 34680020 35900021 37020018 37009949 36979837
               35859830 33589841 33409917 33420043