MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...FAR WRN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 141825Z - 141930Z
   
   CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THE
   ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN ORE AND FAR WRN ID IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ORE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   SVR HAIL INCREASES.
   
   RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD HAS FIRMED UP OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ORE AND SWRN ID...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 60S-LOWER 70S AND WEAK INHIBITION HAVE ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS FAR NERN
   ORE...WHERE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER
   THIS MORNING HAS DELAYED HEATING...AND COULD LIMIT MORE ROBUST
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER FLOW WILL
   GRADUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
   CLOSED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 350 MI W OF
   EKA...WHILE A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE PIVOTS NWD INTO THE PAC NW. THIS
   SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
   
   POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER
   DESTABILIZE OVER A BROAD AREA...EVENTUALLY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES
   RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL
   WIND PROFILES...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...
   
   LAT...LON   44411669 43321633 42031674 42001946 42031995 44092010
               45611979 45911932 45891777 45701718 44411669