MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SERN MO...SWRN KY...WRN TN AND NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 131701Z - 131830Z
   
   STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   INITIALLY ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO INTO WRN TN. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
   BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SOON.
   
   ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED
   FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN AR. LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...AND CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER
   WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND INFLUENCE OF
   DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
   TROUGH. SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL...BUT
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO
   EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS IN ADDITION TO DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   34879180 36769085 37408984 36808856 34079059 33789220
               34879180