MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...SRN IND...FAR SERN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121951Z - 122145Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...SRN IND...AND
   FAR SERN IL.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE DAY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT MCV
   MOVING NEWD...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN TN. AMPLE INSOLATION AMIDST A
   MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MCV. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
   DEPICTS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV
   FROM SRN IND INTO WRN TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD IN
   TANDEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE MCV. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES
   FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25 KT
   WILL YIELD MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL. MODEST SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS -- I.E. 15F TO
   20F -- COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER RAPID REFRESH
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG IN MANY AREAS.
   THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
   LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
   A WW.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35478854 35918904 36858904 37468858 38308723 38708549
               37598448 36158544 35488644 35308748 35478854