MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0930 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN OH THROUGH WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 121430Z - 121600Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION FROM NRN OH
   SEWD THROUGH WV. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH CNTRL WV...CNTRL OH INTO NRN IND AND NERN IL.
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME EAST AND
   NORTH OF THIS FRONT WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS ALONG
   PERIPHERY OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE
   TO WARM...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S...STORMS WILL
   LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...BUT 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
   MODEST UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH IN ADDITION TO 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL AID HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   41728312 41218119 39757992 38547963 38368072 40328236
               41168368 41728312