MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0816 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHWEST
   MO/SOUTHWEST IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 120116Z - 120215Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH 284 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS AND
   MO. AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
   KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA. AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO THE NORTH/WEST OF WW 284...BUT
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   BENEATH UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IN THE PRESENCE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW
   ALOFT...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF
   EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY/PRIOR OUTFLOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST
   KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BORDER. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z TOPEKA OBSERVED RAOB
   INDICATIVE OF 7.4 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 1800 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH THE
   BOUNDARY/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR IS RELATIVELY WEAK PER REGIONAL
   WSR-88D VWPS...SUCH THAT THE CONVECTIVE MODE/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN MULTICELLULAR/EPISODIC IN NATURE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL
   WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE...AMPLE
   INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION LOADING IMPLY
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL...WITH A 45 KT
   MEASURED GUST RECENTLY NOTED AT FALLS CITY IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   40159509 39649541 39749618 40589648 41199588 41299458
               40799440 40159509