MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NERN TX / SWRN AND CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283...
   
   VALID 120043Z - 120145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 283 FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NEWD
   INTO CNTRL AR.  THE GREATEST REMAINING DMGG TSTM RISK APPEARS TO
   HAVE BIFURCATED INTO 2 AREAS...1) DISCRETE STORMS OVER CNTRL TX ON
   THE SRN END OF THE LINE AND 2) CNTRL AR WHERE PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS MAY LEAD TO WIND DMG.
   
   SURFACE/RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS A BROKEN QLCS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AR
   SWWD INTO E-CNTRL TX.  GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE
   EXTENDS FROM SWRN AR NEAR TXK SWWD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR
   AUS AND TRAILING WWD AND INTERSECTING DISCRETE UPDRAFTS EXHIBITING
   SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LARGER SCALE LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  THE LEADING COLD POOL SURGE ACROSS A LARGE
   CNTRL PORTION OF THE WATCH IS ACTING TO STABILIZE THE NEAR-SURFACE
   LAYER---LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS.  THE FAR SWRN PORTION OF
   THE WATCH OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY MAINTAINS A SLY FETCH OF HIGH
   THETA-E AIR FEEDING INTO THE STORMS LOCATED OVER LLANO AND
   GILLESPIE/MASON COUNTIES IN TX.  LARGE DIFFLUENT COMPONENT TO UPPER
   FLOW AND A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD ACT TO
   SUSTAIN A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS
   ACROSS THIS AREA.  FARTHER N OVER CNTRL AR...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
   THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. 
   ISOLD-PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
   HAZARD OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DIURNAL
   STABILIZATION LESSENS THIS THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   30449950 31069806 31889620 32899559 33469472 34279392
               34819362 35609356 35619267 35049223 34089278 34029284
               33179345 31669535 30909616 30339736 30229869 30239923
               30449950