MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL IA / NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 282...
   
   VALID 112317Z - 112345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 282 CONTINUES.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE WITH DMGG
   WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  EMBEDDED MISOSCALE CIRCULATIONS
   IN THE LINE MAY POSE A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO RISK THAT MAY CONTINUE
   BEYOND WW 282 EXPIRATION AT 00Z.  
   
   RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS THAT A NW-SE BAND OF
   STORMS HAS LARGELY CONSOLIDATED INTO A NEWD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE
   AND IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER IN FAR NRN MO TO 45 MI W
   DSM AS OF 2310Z.  A LEAD IMPULSE THAT HAS NOW MOVED INTO FAR ERN IA
   AND WRN IL IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT THIS FEATURE FOSTERED
   A STORM CLUSTER THAT RESULTED IN COLD POOL THAT HAS LESSENED THE
   DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR SERN IA.  SURFACE
   ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM E-CNTRL IL TO 40 MI
   S UIN TO 25 MI W IRK.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS EFFECTIVELY PINCHED THE
   UNDISTURBED WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR AND CONFINED IT PRIMARILY INTO
   S-CNTRL IA.  
   
   ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR BRIEF/EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES MAY CONTINUE
   SOME TORNADO RISK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IT APPEARS THAT COLD
   POOL ORGANIZATION WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AND SUPPORT PRIMARILY AN
   ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT.  A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME OR PERHAPS A NEW
   SEVERE WATCH MAY BEST ADDRESS THIS SETUP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
   HOURS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   40129364 40789449 41369423 41789330 41699257 40899227
               39919186 39729243 39979338 40129364