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Mesoscale Discussion 738 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278...
VALID 111951Z - 112115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST. THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS NERN TX WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN MORE PROBABLE ACROSS S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL
TX. A NEW WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST ACROSS NERN TX...SWRN AR
INTO EXTREME NWRN LA...OR WW 278 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED.
A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES FROM NERN TX SWWD THROUGH S-CNTRL TX. NRN
PORTION OF THE LINE HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOW ECHO AND IS MOVING EWD
MORE QUICKLY AT 45 KT...WHILE TRAILING SRN END HAS A MUCH SMALLER
EWD COMPONENT OF MOTION WITH A GREATER THREAT OF PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORT WORTH VWP INDICATES BOWING PORTION HAS A
45-50 KT REAR INFLOW JET WHICH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE APEX. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THIS
ACTIVITY ADVANCES THROUGH REMAINDER OF NERN TX. STORMS WILL APPROACH
THE ERN EDGE OF WW 278 BY 21Z...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST OF LLJ AXIS.
..DIAL.. 05/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32469763 33659633 34279428 33259353 32409477 30589877
31039948 32469763
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