MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI...A SMALL PART OF SRN UPPER
   MI...NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 111816Z - 112015Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL LOWER
   MI...A SMALL PART OF SRN UPPER MI...AND NRN WI.
   
   DEEP...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CORES ARE DEVELOPING/PERSISTING AT THE
   NRN APEX OF A PLUME OF STEEP 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
   C PER KM EXTENDING NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
   PROVIDE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J PER KG/ FOR
   THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE -- I.E. BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB
   PER RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- WITH THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE
   DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION /ACROSS SRN MI AND SRN
   WI/. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY AOB 30 KT...THE
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH LIMITED THREAT
   FOR INDIVIDUALLY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CORES. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT
   WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
   ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INFLUX OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FEATURING PWAT
   VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.4 INCHES PER AMSU/SSMI TPW PRODUCT...HEAVY
   RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
   CONVECTIVE TRAINING /AS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN LOWER MI/.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   43778633 44158787 44538903 45309100 45849040 45828900
               45468725 45058589 44638417 44428343 43948306 43488336
               43468486 43778633