MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN TN AND WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...
   
   VALID 110637Z - 110700Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273
   CONTINUES.
   
   A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SWRN VA...PARTS OF
   EXTREME ERN TN AND WRN NC.  THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN KY
   SHOULD MOVE S OF WW 275 AROUND 08Z.  GIVEN THIS FACTOR...WW 273 WILL
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND/OR BE CANCELLED EARLY...WITH CONTINUED
   MONITORING OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR INCREASE IN STRONGER
   CORES.  IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A NEW WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED S OF
   WW 275.
   
   05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF
   CHICAGO SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND...FAR SWRN OH AND THEN SSEWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN KY TO ERN TN AND NERN-ERN GA.  REGIONAL RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWED A PROGRESSIVE MCS TRACKING SSEWD THROUGH CENTRAL SC. 
   DESPITE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS
   UPSTREAM ACROSS UPSTATE SC TO WRN NC...NEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   AND TRACK SSEWD ACROSS ERN KY TOWARD FAR SWRN VA.  THIS LATTER
   ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A WLY 20-30 KT LLJ WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000
   J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND THIS
   REGION RESIDING ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF EML/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS ACTIVITY MOVES SSEWD.  AS THE LLJ VEERS
   TO NWLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z...ACTIVITY OVER ERN KY SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP AND TRACK INTO SWRN VA...ERN TN/WRN NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  IF ERN KY ACTIVITY IS
   SUSTAINED...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   LAT...LON   35298064 34688089 34318203 35098264 35748321 36548343
               36958310 37448197 36848157 35298064