MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN MN...W CNTRL WI...FAR NERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 102210Z - 102345Z
   
   MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO ACROSS CNTRL MN. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP EXPECT TORNADOES
   AND LARGE HAIL TO BE MAIN THREAT AND A TORNADO WATCH WOULD BE
   NEEDED. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AS
   TO WHETHER OR NOT MORE THAN A STORM OR TWO WILL BE ABLE TO FORM AND
   HOW LONG THE THREAT WOULD LAST GIVEN RATHER NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR
   AND STRONG CAP.
   
   21Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC LOW ACROSS W CNTRL MN WITH A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING E/SEWD ACROSS MN INTO SRN WI AND A COLD FRONT SWD
   FROM THE LOW INTO WRN IA AND ERN NEB. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAD OCCURRED AND A STORM HAD DEVELOPED IN ERN
   OTTER TAIL COUNTY AS OF AROUND 2145Z. A NARROW WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR
   STORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED ACROSS SERN MN NEAR THE SFC
   LOW/FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
   THE QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS QUICKLY DEGRADES EWD INTO WI/E OF THE
   WARM FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...MLCAPE VALUES FROM NEAR 2000 J/KG
   ACROSS CNTRL MN TO NEAR 5000 J/KG ACROSS SERN MN WILL MORE THAN
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD CAPPING CONTINUE TO ERODE.
   ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KT AND MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
   
   IF ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 05/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...
   
   LAT...LON   47029598 47089563 46939501 46709433 46319360 45719258
               44739119 43788993 43248942 43008942 42908955 42949040
               43049159 43259276 43399356 43499380 44309435 45629518
               46459579 46739594 47029598