MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 101812Z - 102015Z
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL MOVE NWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   WHILE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ENSUE...ANY
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.
   
   THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   LOW-LATITUDE WAVE EMERGING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO TX HAS PROMPTED THE
   RECENT INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
   TX AT THE APEX OF A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. SINCE STATIC
   STABILITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY
   AMPLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
   PLUME...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB PER
   RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
   REGARDLESS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH 12Z FORT WORTH AND NORMAN SOUNDINGS INDICATING
   700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.9 C PER KM AND 9.2 C PER
   KM...RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...SMALL HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS NWD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO CNTRL TX CLOSER TO
   A 500-MB VORT MAX. GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...A
   SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD DEVELOP WITH THE MORE
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
   AOB 30 KT...THE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/DURATION MAY BE
   LIMITED...REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THUS...THE ISSUANCE OF
   A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   34509566 32689595 32099677 31969803 32649903 33739927
               34219928 35619890 36259810 36209672 35499595 34509566