MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC...NE GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 032322Z - 040045Z
   
   AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST AS A BROKEN LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN NC THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NE GA AND WRN SC AS STORMS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
   THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION AND WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE LINE IS
   BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
   REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS.
   AHEAD OF THE LINE...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM
   ERN GA NWD INTO WRN NC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1000
   TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 45 TO 55
   KT RANGE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING. AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ISOLATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   34338090 33598166 33708299 34838274 35338244 36208176
               36898089 37108012 36907936 36577897 35877934 34948021
               34338090