MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/MUCH OF MS AND LA/NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 021851Z - 022115Z
   
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN --
   AND WEST OF -- THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   WHILE A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT LIMITED
   POTENTIAL SHOULD NEGATE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...NEAR -- AND JUST WEST OF -- THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE WEAKLY CONFLUENT WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS
   FARTHER E.  WHILE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE WHICH HAS
   RESULTED FROM THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM AIR IN THE 850 TO 650 MB LAYER
   WILL HINDER TO SOME DEGREE THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  IN
   ADDITION...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WELL W IN THE COOLER
   POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...FURTHER LIMITING OVERALL STORM INTENSITY
   IN/NEAR THE WARM SECTOR.  WHILE A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BRIEFLY
   STRENGTHEN ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS...DEGREE OF THREAT ANTICIPATED ATTM
   SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   34718782 33758739 30538990 29949131 30059382 31639386
               33909143 34688923 34718782