MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NWRN LA...SRN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...
   
   VALID 012243Z - 020015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.
   
   HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH 02Z WILL EXIST FROM
   NERN TX INTO EXTREME NWRN LA AND SWRN/SCNTRL AR.
   
   TSTMS HAVE INITIATED INVOF A SFC LOW NEAR TYLER TX WHERE MLCAPES OF
   2500 J/KG AND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXIST.  STORMS HAVE BEEN
   STRUGGLING TO GROW INTO SUBSTANTIAL ENTITIES OFF THE EWD MOVING COLD
   FRONT BUT COULD DO SO YET EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
   TWO WOULD BE PRIMARY SVR THREATS IF A SUSTAINED STORM CAN DEVELOP
   AND REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN TX INTO SWRN/SCNTRL
   AR.
   
   OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A DIMINISHING DISCRETE STORM OVER WRN
   TN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN AR INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN
   REMAINS INERT WITH RESPECT TO SFC-BASED STORMS.  EXPECT THAT
   ELEVATED STORMS WILL INCREASE N OF THIS FEATURE FROM EXTREME NERN TX
   INTO SRN/CNTRL AR WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  WHILE SOME HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
   /REF MKCSWOMCD #684/.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   36298948 36248809 35318765 34508794 34378893 34118999
               33629095 33159176 32399316 31459464 31389563 31449666
               31899705 32419667 33199588 34429408 35929064 36298948