MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...SWRN/CNTRL AR...FAR WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...
   
   VALID 011712Z - 011845Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
   CONTINUES.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT
   FROM 15 E JBR TO 30 W PBF...AS A STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
   TO 25 NW TYR...AND AS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO CNTRL TX. A MODEST
   LLJ /SSWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KT PER FORT WORTH AND SHREVEPORT VWP DATA/
   ATOP THE NWD-SLOPED FRONTAL SFC IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO
   REGENERATE IN NERN SECTIONS OF WW 261...AND FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL AR
   AND FAR WRN TN.
   
   WHILE THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE WANED ELSEWHERE TEMPORARILY...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE NEAR
   AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR.
   HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND WEST OF THE
   SHREVEPORT AREA. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
   INSOLATION...AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR. THUS...WW 261 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH
   WITHIN AN HOUR.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   34929091 34509116 34129147 33469152 32709215 32109316
               31759445 31669604 32209683 32389782 32859778 33419719
               33709618 34159456 34729310 35319261 35969106 36129008
               35738933 35219001 34929091