MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW/N-CENTRAL TX...SRN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259...
   
   VALID 011229Z - 011400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259
   CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WW.  EXPECT PRIMARY SVR POTENTIAL TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
   N-CENTRAL TX AND ADJOINING RED RIVER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER
   MORNING...THOUGH SPORADIC SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR FARTHER N ACROSS
   PORTIONS NW TX AND EXTREME SRN OK.  MRGL SVR GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
   GIVEN LINGERING DRYNESS IN SUBCONVECTIVE/SUBFRONTAL LAYER AND
   RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF GUSTS TO SFC. 
   HOWEVER...WHERE APPRECIABLE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED...GUST POTENTIALLY
   MAY BE MITIGATED BY COMBINATION OF HIGHER RH AND EVAPORATIONALLY
   BOLSTERED STATIC STABILITY.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...FROM
   N-CENTRAL AR SWWD ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK...AND
   KAUFMAN/BOSQUE/CONCHO COUNTIES TX.  PLANAR ANALYSES OF VWP/PROFILER
   DATA INDICATE 850-MB FRONTAL ZONE AND CONFLUENCE AXIS LARGELY
   PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT...NEAR LINE FROM FSM-GLE-SNK.  ANOTHER SVR
   TSTM WITH OCNL SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR DYS
   AND...LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW HOURS AGO..CALVED A LEFT SPLIT
   NNEWD.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUITABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT N OF FRONT
   WITH ELEVATED INFLOW...GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN
   MORE COMPLEX STORM STRUCTURES.  THIS ACTIVITY LIKEWISE MAY TURN EWD
   TOWARD METROPLEX AND TOWARD FIELD OF ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG MUCAPE
   THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH HAIL/GUST RISK.  BAND OF TSTMS THAT HAS
   CROSSED I-35 BETWEEN DTO AND RED RIVER SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 260
   AND MAY BECOME SFC-BASED NEAR FRONT.  MEANWHILE MORE CONVECTION IS
   DEVELOPING OVER NW TX BETWEEN DYS/SNK/CDS AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS
   NWRN PORTIONS WW WITH MRGL HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   32449655 31899797 31709920 31840008 32750042 33390042
               34709930 34849767 34849646 34569539 34189512 33989522
               33379604 32449655