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Mesoscale Discussion 647 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY/PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244...
VALID 280245Z - 280345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244
CONTINUES.
AS OF 0245Z...N/S-ORIENTED QLCS PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL NY FROM SAINT
LAWRENCE TO DELAWARE COUNTIES WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS. ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE DEPICTED GREATER LEADING
STRATIFORM RAINFALL...A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LINE INTERCEPTS AN AXIS OF
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FARTHER W...DESPITE THE DEARTH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT ON THE 00Z PIT
RAOB...LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIDWEST
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS LIKELY AIDED IN RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A
WARMER/MOISTER AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PA. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
TO ADDRESS THIS WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS.. 04/28/2011
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 44407488 44727420 44497383 43647357 42807383 41977423
40467594 39907758 39967831 40207900 40647902 41027843
41757705 42667585 44407488
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