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Mesoscale Discussion 642 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AL AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 235...
VALID 280055Z - 280200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 235 CONTINUES.
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH 235 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z...WITH A CONTINUED HIGH-END RISK FOR STRONG/PERHAPS
VIOLENT TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL INTO NORTHWEST GA. GIVEN A SCHEDULED
03Z EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH 235...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THIS REMAINS A
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SCENARIO.
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN A NUMBER OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE 00Z OBSERVED BIRMINGHAM RAOB SAMPLED A CLASSIC
STRONG TORNADO ENVIRONMENT/PARAMETER SPACE...HIGHLIGHTED BY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY STRONG 0-1 KM SRH OF 450
M2/S2 VIA A LONG CURVING HODOGRAPH WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. WITH
TIME...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST 1-2 KM FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN AL INTO NORTHERN GA/THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
VICINITY. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO DECOUPLE AFTER DARK GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AMID LOWER
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND 16 G/KM MEAN MIXING RATIO PER THE 00Z
BIRMINGHAM RAOB.
OF NOTE...ONGOING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ASIDE...SHORT TERM
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL AL AMID A ZONE OF SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE VICINITY OF MONTGOMERY AND NEARBY
I-65/I-85 GENERAL VICINITIES. ACCORDINGLY...SUSTAINED/RELATIVELY
DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...WITH CONTINUED STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT
TORNADO POTENTIAL...ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN A WSW-ENE ORIENTED
BROAD CORRIDOR ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AL INTO NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING.
..GUYER.. 04/28/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 32158831 34098703 34828526 32308546 31298696 32158831
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