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Mesoscale Discussion 635 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 237...239...
VALID 272227Z - 272330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 237...239...CONTINUES.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY N OF WW/S 237/239
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IND BY 00Z.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 995 MB SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SRN IL
AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD BISECTING IND. ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/NARROW QLCS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW HAS
HAD A HISTORY OF EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES WITHIN A VERY
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2 SAMPLED
BY PAH VWP DATA. AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING
THE SURFACE LOW NEWD ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...ENOUGH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
STRATIFORM/CONVECTIVE REGION IN SERN IND/CNTRL KY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN TSTM INTENSITY TO THE NE. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS.
..GRAMS.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 37298795 37208863 38098889 39518772 40238688 40638558
40518488 40008477 39488460 39078465 38488554 37788699
37298795
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