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Mesoscale Discussion 631 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MOST OF MD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...
VALID 272039Z - 272145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES.
MESOANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VA/WV. THE WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO
1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE LAST HR OVER NRN VA/MD. IN
ADDITION...SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 200-300 M2 S-2. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ROTATING
STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...AND LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE. THEREFORE...SVR WEATHER THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW 233 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE FOR ONGOING STORMS.
..GARNER.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38307980 39737893 39717622 39437597 39177626 38627610
38437629 38257607 38367578 37897588 37887623 38157659
38257734 37737780 37537887 38307980
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