MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 261749Z - 261845Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS WRN WV AND MAY EVOLVE
   SIMILARLY TO SCENARIO DESCRIBED IN MCD 0586 WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. THE
   PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 19Z IS 80 PERCENT.
   
   SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS
   STRETCHING FROM SWRN PA INTO ERN KY. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW WARMED
   INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AXIS ACROSS WV
   INTO WRN VA. ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TOO SLOW WITH ONGOING
   DEVELOPMENT...THE DEPICTION OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
   CLUSTERS APPEARS PROBABLE AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO BETWEEN 1000 TO
   2000 J/KG AND ON THE TRAILING PERIPHERY OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   OF 35-45 KT...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...
   
   LAT...LON   38138274 39718085 39878008 39627847 39147822 38347858
               37507955 37197995 37048078 37188190 37538248 38138274