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Mesoscale Discussion 568 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK TO
SOUTHERN AR/NORTHWEST LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251546Z - 251645Z
A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHERN OK INCLUDING AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF I-35. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
WHILE LOW LEVEL COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN AND HINDER SURFACE HEATING
TO A DEGREE...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH WAS
ALREADY INDICATIVE OF VERY LITTLE INHIBITION. AIDED BY A PROMINENT
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT ADVANCING COLD
FRONT/MODESTLY EASTWARD0ACCELERATING DRYLINE...FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INITIAL
MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE
ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE PRE-COLD FRONTAL/DRYLINE
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONSIDERABLE
CONCERN AS WELL AS STORMS CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT.
..GUYER.. 04/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31599798 33239740 34949652 35049504 33919346 32029343
30599626 31599798
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