MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...
   
   VALID 250425Z - 250530Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.
   
   WW 196 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.  HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL
   AND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS...AND REPLACEMENT SVR TSTM WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 05Z.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM RED RIVER COUNTY TO
   DALLAS COUNTY...SWWD TOWARD SUPERCELLS MOVING EWD BETWEEN
   SEP-BWD...THEN NWWD ACROSS SWW/SNK AREAS.  THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS
   NWWD-RETREATING DRYLINE OVER MITCHELL COUNTY...S OF SFC COLD FRONT. 
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED W OF WW NEAR THAT INTERSECTION...IN
   ENVIRONMENT THAT MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR THREAT WITH SIGNIFICANT-SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. 
   SUPERCELLS NEAR SEP MAY HAVE BEGIN WEAKENING TREND...BUT WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE DAMAGING HAIL THREAT FOR AS LONG AS THEY CAN
   PERSIST IN FACE OF MLCINH THAT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH BOTH TIME AND
   EWD EXTENT.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH WITH 45-55 KT
   MAGNITUDES TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  PARCELS N OF BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC
   NEAR WRN BRANCH OF 45-50 KT LLJ...ACCESSING MUCAPE IN 2000-3000 J/KG
   RANGE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32349549 31319918 31650108 32380089 33169917 33679809
               33729652 33709510 32979495 32349549