MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN AND NCNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...
   
   VALID 221018Z - 221145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177
   CONTINUES.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND COULD
   EVOLVE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD...BUT THREAT EAST OF WW 177 IS
   UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM
   WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MO NWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL KS THEN WWD TO
   A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN KS. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRONG SWLY LLJ
   BENEATH EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT IS CONTRIBUTING
   TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NERN KS
   INTO NWRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD AS LLJ VEERS IN RESPONSE
   TO PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. A
   COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR LIMITED THE DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN MCV HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
   THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER...AND STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP SWD INTO A
   MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION. IF THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND COULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   38719404 38429511 38669645 39809655 39939497 39729387
               38719404