MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SE KS...WRN-CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 211925Z - 212030Z
   
   A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OK...SE KS AND WRN
   TO CNTRL AR THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS BEING COORDINATED FOR PARTS OF
   THEE REGION.
   
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500
   J/KG IN ECNTRL OK TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL AR. THIS AREA IS
   LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHERE 0-6
   KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE STORMS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL MAY EXIST
   WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35419254 34599224 33869267 33819388 34489602 35019658
               35779688 37329657 37419550 36769469 36189358 35419254