MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 190753Z - 190900Z
   
   A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BASED WITHIN A
   STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN
   ADVANCE OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING
   FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK.  CAPPING
   ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /ROUGHLY DELINEATED BY
   +8-10C AT 700 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN LIMIT
   OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12-13Z...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   PRIMARILY INCREASING NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND EAST OF
   KANSAS CITY/ST. JOSEPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI.  A FAIRLY
   DEEP AND COLD SURFACE BASED LAYER MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE
   RISK OF HAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER
   SHEAR...COULD YIELD FAIRLY LARGE HAIL SIZES.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
   FRONT...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR INTO PARTS OF
   SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS ...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE
   COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   40149452 40729240 40249081 39858895 38498804 38139039
               37959123 38159293 39489419 40149452