MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...WRN PA...LE...SMALL PART OF NWRN
   WV AND NRN PANHANDLE OF WV.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161734Z - 161930Z
   
   NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR
   SVR LIMITS THROUGH 21Z.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT CORRESPONDING WITH STRENGTHENING
   BAND OF TSTMS AND RELATED NARROW BAND OF FORCED ASCENT...EXTENDING
   FROM SWRN LE SEWD ACROSS WRN FRINGES CLE AREA TO JUST E ZZV AS OF
   1715Z.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD INTO NARROW...EWD-MOVING 
   CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE AND SFC HEATING...PER
   CLEAR SLOT ON VIS IMAGERY.  CORRESPONDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS
   DEPICT NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BUOYANT LOW-MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...WITH ESSENTIALLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EXCEPT IN
   NEAR-SFC LAYER.  POCKETS OF MLCAPE 100-250 J/KG MAY DEVELOP ABOVE
   SFC THETAE AXIS...WHILE STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FLOW SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   39308159 40778191 41448215 41748225 42218122 42388016
               41398006 40408003 39638035 39308159