MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN NJ...SERN NY...LONG ISLAND...SRN/WRN CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 130323Z - 130500Z
   
   STORMS MAY IMPACT NEW YORK CITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...
   HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE
   LIMITS.
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED BAND OF WARM
   ADVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY AREA
   BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z...BEFORE WEAKENING.  THIS IS OCCURRING ABOVE
   A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...TO THE NORTH OF A
   SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF COASTAL
   AREAS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL
   INVERSION APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...WHICH MAY
   BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SMALL TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...DESPITE FAIRLY RAPID STORM MOTION
   IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
   CONDUCIVE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...
   
   LAT...LON   40477461 41087460 41507349 41197251 40617242 40207305
               40197420 40477461