MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0419 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN LA AND EXTREME NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 110919Z - 111015Z
   
   ...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...
   ...NEW WW DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO WATCH 127 NOT LIKELY REQUIRED...
   
   BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO EJECT ACROSS N TX/OK AT 09Z. 
   EARLIER WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO THAT TRACKED SW-E OF THE DFW
   METROPLEX HAS DIMINISHED.  INSPECTION OF LATEST RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DOWNSTREAM CAP NEAR 700 MB MAY BE CULPRIT FOR
   DIMINISHING SFC-BASED STORMS.  IN FACT...MAJORITY OF STORMS ONGOING
   ACROSS AR AND CNTRL TX ARE ELEVATED IN MORE OF AN ANAFRONTAL
   SITUATION AS PARCELS NEED A BOOST FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO REACH
   LFC.  
   
   HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR
   TRACK OF A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER TRACKING ENE FROM NEAR
   OK/TX/AR BORDER ENE INTO CNTRL AR THROUGH DAYBREAK.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL ADVANCE OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 127...BUT THE ANTICIPATED ISOLD
   NATURE TO THE SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW IS NOT
   LIKELY.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32629557 35389306 36039229 35809111 35299082 34199149
               32569330 31979479 32629557