MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO NERN MO INTO SERN IA/NWRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 102203Z - 102300Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 00Z FROM
   SWRN TO NERN MO INTO SERN IA/NWRN IL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW. AN INITIAL THREAT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
   
   UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO INITIATION OVER PORTIONS OF
   MO...AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER CNTRL IA/NRN
   MO WOULD IMPLY SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...21Z SOUNDING AT
   SPRINGFIELD SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS NEARLY
   ERODED...WITH 5 DEGREE C COOLING AT 850/700 MB SINCE 12Z AND
   MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN
   AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG A DRYLINE THAT HAS MIXED EWD INTO CNTRL
   IA...SWWD TO WRN MO...SERN KS...AND INTO CNTRL OK. WIND FIELDS AND
   SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...ORIENTED
   THROUGH ERN IA...NWRN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS. AS ASCENT/HEIGHT
   FALLS GENERALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...RAPID INITIATION MAY OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
   SEWD TO THE DRYLINE...GENERALLY AROUND OR AFTER 00Z AS IMPLIED BY
   MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC/HI RES MODELS. INITIALLY DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
   WILL CONGEAL INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES
   GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FORCING.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   42759149 42209024 41078980 38919170 36859367 37229455
               38629367 41239219 42759149