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Mesoscale Discussion 395 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN AND WCNTRL/SWRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...
VALID 100626Z - 100730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.
...LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/BRIEF TORNADO THREATS...
06Z WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM KEST-KMCW-KORD. ERN BRANCH OF A TWO-
PRONGED SWLY LLJ WAS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT OVER
WRN/CNTRL IA AS EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT GENERATION ZONE OF UPDRAFTS
OVER NWRN IA/SCNTRL MN. PRE-MIDNIGHT SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR TO
HAVE BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MORE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION AND PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL REPORTS.
LLJ WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
H85-H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND INCREASE CAPPING CONCERNS.
THUS...THE GENERATION ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN MN
AND CNTRL WI THROUGH 09Z. THIS WILL LESSEN THE THREATS FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL
YIELD LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST OF STORMS.
..RACY.. 04/10/2011
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42789568 43899587 44549469 44889355 44979234 44889125
44459076 43829044 43329061 43099137 42979289 42749419
42599515 42789568
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